Scenarios reflecting the likely range of scenarios for west coast rock lobster poaching trends in recent and future years
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2013
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University of Cape Town
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Abstract
In order to undertake stock assessment analyses for the different west coast rock lobster stocks, which provide the Operating Models (OMs) used for Operational Management Procedure (OMP) testing, estimates of past annual catches are required. This means that scenarios regarding the levels of poaching in each of the five super-areas into which the resource is divided need to be developed, where
these scenarios must span the plausible range of what these levels might have been. Similarly, when projecting the resource into the future during the simulation testing of candidate OMPs for the resource, a range of scenarios need to be developed to cover the likely range of future levels of poaching, as for acceptability any candidate OMP must evidence robust performance across this range.
This is achieved, in part, through “feedback control”: the OMP adjusts catches in response to trends in indices of abundance provided by monitoring data such as CPUE.
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Johnston, S. J. (2013). Scenarios reflecting the likely range of scenarios for west coast rock lobster poaching trends in recent and future years. FISHERIES.