Alternative hypotheses of two mixing stocks of South African sardine: some projections assuming no future catch

De Moor, Carryn L

Alternative hypotheses of two mixing stocks of South African sardine: some projections assuming no future catch

Working Paper

2014

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

This document shows projections of the sardine 1+ biomasses under a no catch scenario for a number of the alternative hypotheses considered by de Moor et al. (2014). The alternatives are summarised again below for ease of reference, together with details of any changes in the simulation testing framework of de Moor and Butterworth (2013). Projections are shown from the results at the joint posterior mode (even though some of these have not converged, see de Moor et al. (2014)), which thus only incorporate simulated future random error, and from the posterior distributions of a limited number of hypotheses which did converge at the joint posterior mode. Given the limited time available to run MCMC, full convergence diagnostics were not checked for any results presented here. Samples were randomly drawn with resampling from a segment of the chain123 . For simplicity, the average sardine catch weight at age is kept constant at the baseline values for all hypotheses.

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