Summary of abalone poaching trend estimates as updated in 2013

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2013

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University of Cape Town

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The analysis in 2013 using up to four separate indicators to estimate the trend in poaching indicates that the target of a 15% per annum reduction in poaching since 2009 has not been reached. In fact, indices suggest a continued and substantial increase in poaching, commencing from October 2009 (note that trends are assessed per ‘model year’, that runs from October in one year (y-1) to September in the following year, y). The 15% per annum decline was a key criterion for rebuilding the abalone resource and was amongst the conditions set by the Minister associated with reopening the fishery. While at this time some four years after re-opening of the fishery, a net 50% reduction in poaching was required under the rebuilding plan, results indicated that poaching has increased by some 150%.
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