The 2006 age-structured production model assessments and projections for the South Coast rock lobster resource-routine update

Abstract

The assessment conducted in 2006 has been routinely extended, taking account of a further year’s catch, CPUE and catch-at-age data. CPUE shows a continuation of the increase that commenced in 1998. The sustainable yield estimates are generally very similar to those for the 2005 assessment, although estimates of current biomass levels relative to K increase. The Reference Case (RC) scenario suggests that a TAC of about 360 MT or less would be appropriate to prevent biomass decline in the future. Other scenarios suggest either higher or lower values than this. If the catch-at-age data are down-weighted, then this 360 MT level for the TAC is increased to 390 MT. On the other hand, the scenario which assumes the 1996+ recruitment to be equal to the average of the previous 10 years is more pessimistic and suggests an appropriate TAC level of only some 300 MT or less to prevent biomass decline.