Assessment of the west and east Australian breeding populations of Southern Hemisphere humpback whales using a model that allows for mixing on the feeding grounds and taking account of the most recent abundance estimates from JARPA

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2005

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University of Cape Town

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The most recent JARPA survey estimates of abundance are used to update the dynamic production model analyses of West and East Australian humpback breeding populations (Johnston and Butterworth 2002). These analyses take account of the results of both these surveys on the feeding grounds and of breeding area surveys, by applying a model that incorporates mixing of the two breeding populations on the feeding grounds of Areas IV and V. Results are quite precisely determined, with the available data providing a self-consistent picture of population recoveries well above their minima of the 1960’s. Best estimates are projected under continuing zero harvest, and show approaches to pristine levels in some 10 years for the western and 15-20 years for the more depleted eastern breeding population.
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