Simulation testing the robustness of stock assessment models to error:some results from the ICES Strategic Initiative on Stock Assessment Methods


Show simple item record Deroba, J J Butterworth, Doug S Methot, R D Jr De Oliveira, J Fernandez, C Nielsen, A Cadrin, S X Dickey-Collas, M Legault, C M Ianelli, J Valero, J L Needle, C O'Malley, J M Chang, Y-J Thompson, G G Canales, C Swain, D P Miller, D C M Hintzen, N T Bertignac, M Ibaibarriaga, L Silva, A Murta, A Kell, L T De Moor, Carryn L Parma, A M Dichmont, C M Restrepo, V R Ye, Y Jardim, E Spencer, P D Hanselman, D H Blaylock, J Mood, M Hulson, P -J F 2016-03-10T10:25:09Z 2016-03-10T10:25:09Z 2015
dc.identifier.citation Deroba, J. J., Butterworth, D. S., Methot, R. D., De Oliveira, J. A. A., Fernandez, C., Nielsen, A., ... & Valero, J. L. (2015). Simulation testing the robustness of stock assessment models to error: some results from the ICES strategic initiative on stock assessment methods. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil, 72(1), 19-30. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 1054-3139 en_ZA
dc.description.abstract The World Conference on Stock Assessment Methods (July 2013) included a workshop on testing assessment methods through simulations. The exercise was made up of two steps applied to datasets from 14 representative fish stocks from around the world. Step 1 involved applying stock assessments to datasets with varying degrees of effort dedicated to optimizing fit. Step 2 was applied to a subset of the stocks and involved characteristics of given model fits being used to generate pseudo-data with error. These pseudo-data were then provided to assessment modellers and fits to the pseudo-data provided consistency checks within (self-tests) and among (cross-tests) assessment models. Although trends in biomass were often similar across models, the scaling of absolute biomass was not consistent across models. Similar types of models tended to perform similarly (e.g. age based or production models). Self-testing and cross-testing of models are a useful diagnostic approach, and suggested that estimates in the most recent years of time-series were the least robust. Results from the simulation exercise provide a basis for guidance on future large-scale simulation experiments and demonstrate the need for strategic investments in the evaluation and development of stock assessment methods en_ZA
dc.language eng en_ZA
dc.publisher Oxford University Press en_ZA
dc.source ICES Journal of Marine Science en_ZA
dc.subject.other cross-test
dc.subject.other model comparison
dc.subject.other pseudo data
dc.subject.other self-test
dc.subject.other time-series analysis
dc.subject.other vpa
dc.title Simulation testing the robustness of stock assessment models to error:some results from the ICES Strategic Initiative on Stock Assessment Methods en_ZA
dc.type Journal Article en_ZA 2016-03-10T10:13:00Z
uct.type.publication Research en_ZA
uct.type.resource Article en_ZA
dc.publisher.institution University of Cape Town
dc.publisher.faculty Faculty of Science en_ZA
dc.publisher.department Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group en_ZA
uct.type.filetype Text
uct.type.filetype Image

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