Updated estimates of demographic parameters for Southern right whales off South Africa

 

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dc.contributor.author Best, Peter B
dc.contributor.author Brandão, Anabela
dc.contributor.author Butterworth, Doug S
dc.date.accessioned 2016-03-08T14:00:58Z
dc.date.available 2016-03-08T14:00:58Z
dc.date.issued 2005
dc.identifier.citation Best, P. B., Brandão, A., & Butterworth, D. S. (2005). Updated estimates of demographic parameters for southern right whales off South Africa. International Whaling Commission document: SC/57/BRG2, 1-17. en_ZA
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11427/17582
dc.description.abstract Aerial counts of right whale cow-calf pairs on the south coast of South Africa between 1971 and 2003 indicate an annual instantaneous population increase rate of 0.069 a year (SE 0.003) over this period. Annual photographic surveys since 1979 have resulted in 1,504 resightings of 793 individual cows with calves. Observed calving intervals ranged from 2 to 23 years, with a principal mode at 3 years and secondary modes at 6 and 9 years, but these made no allowance for missed calvings. Using the model of Payne et al. (1990), a maximum calving interval of 5 years produces the most appropriate fit to the data, giving a mean calving interval of 3.15 years with a 95 % confidence interval of (3.11, 3.18). The same model produces an estimate for adult female survival rate of 0.990 with a 95% confidence interval of (0.983, 0.997). The Payne et al. (1990) model is extended to incorporate information on the observed ages of first reproduction of greyblazed calves, which are known to be female. This allows the estimation of first parturition (median 7.69 years with 95% confidence interval (7.06, 8.32)). First year survival rate was estimated as 0.734 (0.518, 0.95) and the instantaneous population increase rate 0.073 (0.066, 0.079). The current population is estimated as some 3,400 animals, or about 17% of initial population size: the latter parameter needs re-consideration.
dc.language eng en_ZA
dc.publisher International Whaling Commission
dc.subject demographic parameters en_ZA
dc.subject South Africa en_ZA
dc.subject.other Southern right whales
dc.title Updated estimates of demographic parameters for Southern right whales off South Africa en_ZA
dc.type Working Paper en_ZA
dc.date.updated 2016-02-25T10:41:47Z
uct.type.publication Research en_ZA
uct.type.resource Discussion paper en_ZA
dc.publisher.institution University of Cape Town
dc.publisher.faculty Faculty of Science en_ZA
dc.publisher.department Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group en_ZA
uct.type.filetype Text
uct.type.filetype Image


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