Machine learning for corporate failure prediction : an empirical study of South African companies
Master Thesis
2004
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University of Cape Town
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Abstract
The research objective of this study was to construct an empirical model for the prediction of corporate failure in South Africa through the application of machine learning techniques using information generally available to investors. The study began with a thorough review of the corporate failure literature, breaking the process of prediction model construction into the following steps: * Defining corporate failure * Sample selection * Feature selection * Data pre-processing * Feature Subset Selection * Classifier construction * Model evaluation These steps were applied to the construction of a model, using a sample of failed companies that were listed on the JSE Securities Exchange between 1 January 1996 and 30 June 2003. A paired sample of non-failed companies was selected. Pairing was performed on the basis of year of failure, industry and asset size (total assets per the company financial statements excluding intangible assets). A minimum of two years and a maximum of three years of financial data were collated for each company. Such data was mainly sourced from BFA McGregor RAID Station, although the BFA McGregor Handbook and JSE Handbook were also consulted for certain data items. A total of 75 financial and non-financial ratios were calculated for each year of data collected for every company in the final sample. Two databases of ratios were created - one for all companies with at least two years of data and another for those companies with three years of data. Missing and undefined data items were rectified before all the ratios were normalised. The set of normalised values was then imported into MatLab Version 6 and input into a Population-Based Incremental Learning (PBIL) algorithm. PBIL was then used to identify those subsets of features that best separated the failed and non-failed data clusters for a one, two and three year forward forecast period. Thornton's Separability Index (SI) was used to evaluate the degree of separation achieved by each feature subset.
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Includes bibliographical references (leaves 255-266).
Reference:
Kornik, S. 2004. Machine learning for corporate failure prediction : an empirical study of South African companies. University of Cape Town.