How accurate are South African macroeconomic forecasts?

 

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dc.creator van Walbeek, Corne
dc.date 2014-06-27T08:45:28Z
dc.date 2014-06-27T08:45:28Z
dc.date 2013
dc.date.accessioned 2015-05-28T10:06:43Z
dc.date.available 2015-05-28T10:06:43Z
dc.date.issued 2015-05-28
dc.identifier van Walbeek, C.P. (2013). How accurate are South African macroeconomic forecasts? Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 37(3): 1-23.
dc.identifier http://reference.sabinet.co.za/sa_epublication_article/bersee_v37_n3_a1
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/11090/750
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11090/750
dc.description This paper considers the ex post accuracy of two published sets of macroeconomic forecasts: the Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU's) Country Report and the "Economist of the Year" consensus forecast, sponsored by Media 24. Root weighted mean square errors (RWMSEs) of these two competing entities' forecasts are, on average, about 60% of the RWMSEs of adaptive naïve predictions for current-year forecasts and about 75% of the RWMSEs of adaptive naïve predictions for one-year-ahead forecasts. There is no substantial difference in the forecast accuracy of the two entities, despite large differences in forecasting methodology. Forecasts are revised on a monthly basis. Monthly revisions in Media 24's consensus forecast are substantially more likely to reduce forecast errors than the EIU's monthly forecast revisions. Revisions in the next-year forecasts for GDP growth and inflation are only marginally better than random, and thus such revisions have little credibility.
dc.language en
dc.publisher Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics
dc.subject Macroeconomic forecasts
dc.title How accurate are South African macroeconomic forecasts?
dc.type Journal Article en_ZA
uct.type.publication Research en_ZA
uct.type.resource Article en_ZA
dc.publisher.institution University of Cape Town
dc.publisher.faculty Faculty of Commerce en_ZA
dc.publisher.department SALDRU en_ZA


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