OpenUCT is the open access institutional repository of the University of Cape Town (UCT). It preserves and makes UCT scholarly outputs digitally and freely available, including theses and dissertations, journal articles, book chapters, technical and research reports, as well as open educational resources.
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Analysis of Household Energy Poverty on Human Development Outcomes in South Africa, Using the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS)
(2023) Gebers, Sophie; Thiam, DjibyThiam
Despite progress in post-Apartheid South Africa's electrification rates, especially in the country's rural areas, widespread energy poverty persists at the household level. To understand the dynamics of energy poverty at the micro-level, this dissertation examines how two different measures of energy poverty – namely, the Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI) and the Ten-Percent Threshold measure (TPT) – affect human development outcomes in the domains of health, labour market outcomes and education-related outcomes. The MEPI is constructed using a range of dimensions relating to access to modern energy services captured in a nationally representative panel dataset, the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS). I also construct the TPT using variables pertaining to household energy expenditure and income. Although there were improvements from 2008 to 2017, it was found that multi- dimensional energy poverty is still prevalent in South African households, especially in rural and low-income households. The dissertation then turns to regression methods to establish whether there is an effect between energy poverty and human outcome indicators. I run both OLS and FE estimation strategies. However, empirical tests and prior literature points to the issue of potential endogeneity within the energy poverty variable. I utilize district-level electricity price and the percentage of households in the district using biomass as a fuel source as instrumental variables to correct for the endogeneity issue. Using a 2SLS regression model, the findings reflect that multidimensional energy poverty does indeed have adverse consequences for an adult individual's health outcomes – both subjective and objective measures. The results also point to the negative effect of household energy poverty on an individual's likelihood to participate in the labour force and be in employment. These results are all highly significant. Lastly, I establish that multidimensional energy poverty is associated with lower number of school years and higher likelihoods of missing a school day. I also show that energy poverty has a gendered effect, with women in the household often experiencing worse outcomes. The TPT is used in a sensitivity analysis. Overall, the results from the investigation can assist in advising policymakers on how access to modern, clean energy sources can help individuals' development outcomes in South Africa. Keywords: energy poverty, development outcomes, instrumental variable.
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Open Access
Delay Factors Experienced in the Medupi Power Station Project: A Unique or Common Case?
(2023) Gichuki, Mariah; Tuan, Nien-Tsu
The Medupi power station project was initiated to address the shortfall of power supply experienced in South Africa since the year 2008. The project which is comprised of six units each with a generating capacity of 794MW commenced construction in the year 2007 and was planned to be completed in the year 2012. However, the project experienced delays of more than nine years with construction completion being achieved in the year 2021 according to information on the official Eskom website. This delay has contributed to the frustration expressed by public and the industry in Eskom's implemented power rationing on various occasions during peak supply periods to stabilize the national grid. The primary aim of this research is to determine the factors that contributed to the delays experienced on the project. The secondary aim of this research is to determine whether the delay factors experienced on the Medupi power station project are unique or common to the delay factors experienced in other construction projects around the world. A qualitative case study methodology was selected for this research due to its applicability in the investigation of a ring fenced unit or phenomenon(Merriam and Tisdell, 2015). To achieve the primary aim of the research, data collection was done through open ended interviews with six project participants from the client and contractors' sides, the objective was to gain a detailed description of the delay factors from the perspective of the parties involved in the project. The interviews were conducted and recorded through the Microsoft Teams video conferencing facility. The interview data was transcribed and thereafter analysed and coded using the NVivo software. Thematic analysis of the interview data identified a total of eight delay factors that were experienced on the Medupi power station project. These delay factors include Insufficient Front- end Planning, Lack of skills and experience, Quality issues, Labour unrest, Unproductivity and lack of motivation to complete project, low processing of documentation, Conflict between project parties, and Political Pressure. A comparison of the delay factors on other similar construction projects around the world documented in existing literature reviewed by the author to those identified in the interview data indicated that Political pressure and Lack of Engineering skills delay factors are not documented in reviewed literature and are therefore noted as unique to the Medupi power station project. The findings of this research could serve as important lessons learnt to be considered by project managers in mitigating delays in future projects.
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Open Access
Weaving a Universal Narrative: A Comparative Screenplay Analysis of Parasite and Blue Velvet
(2023) Goosen, Matthew; Valley, Dylan-Wade
Based on a comparative analysis between Blue Velvet (Lynch, 1986) and Parasite, (Joon- Ho, 2019), the purpose of this dissertation is to facilitate the: definitions, possibilities for further research, and a skillset upon which audiences and vocational practitioners might interpret cinematic storytelling, thus allowing scholars, critics, and audiences develop statements on the film's central theme. The approach of this thesis is to appreciate, acknowledge, elaborate upon, and challenge the filmmakers' artistic statements while contributing to the methodologies by which viewers might further appreciate the universality of the cinematic language (Lingua Cinéma). My methodology for this thesis will be to identify and offer a comparative analysis of narrative, visual, and sound elements based on interpretive and evaluative claims to determine and establish a universal film narrative. Blue Velvet (Lynch, 1986) and Parasite (Joon-ho, 2019), despite their cultural and temporal dissimilarities, are both films that are deeply invested in mood, tonality, and symbolism, and deal with post-modern themes such as late-state capitalism by conflating the iconography of the ideal national standard and juxtaposing it with inequity and moral decay. The diversity and similarity of this selection of films, therefore, has served to demonstrate the correlation between cinema and culture, thereby inferring the universality of images, textual analysis, and Lingua Cinéma. Based on the framework consisting of plot and character development; similarities in tone, length, and genre; and the incidence of beat placement, contemporary and subsequent research into the comparative analysis of these two films indicates a correlation between audience and scholarly response and the application of a universal narrative. Interpreting the framework of the cinematic storytelling methodology offers and facilitates formal organization; expectations; aspects of character, story, and structure; interpretation of motifs and parallels; and references to history, tradition, culture, and themes. Offering a universal framework bestows scholars the means by which to develop interpretative and evaluative claims based on organization and a keen insight.
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Open Access
The Securitisation of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence in the United Nations Women, Peace and Security Agenda: The Case of Liberia, 2000-2013
(2023) Garach, Ushna; Scanlon, Helen
This thesis explores the securitisation of sexual violence in the United Nations Women, Peace and Security agenda, drawing on the Liberian experience. This study is conducted through a critical discourse analysis of the resolutions adopted by the United Nations Security Council from 2000 to 2019, and the Liberian National Action Plan, implemented from 2009 to 2013 as a tool to localise the Women, Peace and Security Agenda in Liberia. Four categories of analysis have been developed as a limited perspective of the securitisation of sexual violence: women and girls as victims and in need of protection; men and boys as victims; special attention to sexual violence and rape; and sexual violence as a threat to international peace and security. This thesis aims to investigate the securitisation of sexual violence and its influence on the response to sexual violence in the Liberian National Action Plan. Ultimately, this thesis finds that the Women, Peace and Security agenda has facilitated the securitisation of sexual violence through: the overrepresentation of women and girls as victims in need of protection; a corresponding underrepresentation of men and boys as victims; and a consistent depiction of sexual violence as both the most egregious type of violence and as an impediment to international peace and security. Its influence on the Liberian National Action Plan is limited, indicated by a sense of agency assigned to women and girls through the specification of the types of protection from which they would benefit; the inclusion of men (though boys are not mentioned) as beneficiaries of anti-sexual and gender-based violence measures; the inconsistent depiction of the comparable severity between sexual violence and other forms of violence; and no mention of sexual violence as a threat to international peace and security. This thesis provides a limited insight of the extent to which norms institutionalised by the United Nations occur in localised tools.
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Open Access
Modelling first innings totals in T20 cricket: applications in the Indian Premier League
(2023) Gilbert, Arlton; Britz, Stefan
In the game of cricket, teams batting first are faced with the question of how many runs are enough. This paper proposes a solution to this in the context of the Indian Premier League (IPL). The aim is to build a model that will allow teams to determine what scores they would need to score for any given confidence of avoiding defeat in regular time, viz. before any Super Overs. The following machine learning methods are considered for this purpose: logistic regression, classification trees, bagging, random forest, boosting, support vector machines, artificial neu- ral networks, and naive Bayes. Features are chosen that represent various key aspects of the game, including player strengths, stadium information, the winner of the toss, and which teams are involved. The results show that logistic regression is the best performing model, having a prediction accuracy of 70.27% and a Brier score of 0.2 for the 2022 season of the IPL. The majority of the incorrect predictions occurred in prediction ranges where the model itself suggested the game could have gone either way. The model is, therefore, fit for purpose and can allow teams to pace their innings and reduce unnecessary risks. The model can also be trained and used on other limited-over tournaments, including one-day matches.